Odds are… Wayne Swan will lose his seat

NATIONAL: Treasurer Wayne Swan is tipped to lose his job in the first betting market for key seats in the 2013 federal election.

Luxbet’s Neil Evans said Mr Swan had opened even-money ($2) to defend his Brisbane seat of Lilley, with the Liberal National Party the $1.72 favourite.

However, former Labor leader Kevin Rudd has opened the $1.40 favourite to retain the southern Brisbane seat of Griffith, with the LNP at $2.70.

“What people have to understand is the federal battle is fought on much more personal and individual lines, from electorate to electorate, rather than a state poll where there is nearly always one giant and abrupt mood for change,” Evans said in a statement on Wednesday.

“While Labor will suffer badly in Queensland, Mr Rudd is one of the very few still reasonably placed to rise above the carnage.”

Evans said that of all the Labor frontbenchers, the closest battle could be in the seat of Perth, where Defence Minister Stephen Smith has opened a narrow $1.75 favourite.

The Liberal party is $1.95 to unseat Mr Smith.

Embattled former Labor MP Craig Thomson is at $9 to retain his NSW seat of Dobell, with the Liberals’ Karen McNamara the $1.04 favourite.

While Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie is favoured to retain his seat of Denison, and Greens MP Adam Bandt is at $1.35 to hold Melbourne (ahead of $3 for Labor), independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott are long shots to keep their seats of New England and Lyne.

The Coalition is paying $1.13 for an overall election win, with Labor on $5.75.

AAP